WEEK NO. 3 IN THE BIG TEN

Ah, predictions. Best way to look stupid ever invented.

I don't believe in giving all kinds of reasons, stats, etc., for why I think a team will win. Usually, as the otherwise extremely irritating Gerry DiNerdo keeps saying on ESPN radio's College GameDay, the team that wins has the better players. This is why the Big Ten is 9-0 against the MAC-hackers this season.

So, Big Ten predictions, with a comment or two.

First comment: yuck. Pretty lame week after last week. This is like a tasting a Chilean Cabernet Sauvignon following Latour '59.

Michigan whatever it wants to score, Eastern Michigan whatever Michigan wants it to score: Hopefully our old friend Jeff Genyk's team won't be too physically mauled by the angry Weasels. What, you insist on a score? Some variation of 49-10, a TD or so either way.

Cal 234, Illinois 6: Ah, so I could hope. I'd settle for 84-6. But I'll get 47-6.

Kentucky 38, Indiana 37: The end of this long-running series, which means that unless these two ADs schedule VERY carefully (hint: hyphenated Louisianas!) they will each have a chance to win one less game next season.

Minnesota 239 yards by Lawrence Maroney on his first four carries, Florida Atlantic $250,000 for flying to the Goopherdome: I predict games, not farces. I thought Florida Atlantic was a railroad. Who cares? Minny 52-13 or something. Yawn.

Ohio State 30, San Diego State 7: Troy Smith will have a big day without having to look over his shoulder. Ted Ginn, assuming Tressel gets him the ball, will outscore the Aztecs.

Penn State 24, Central Michigan 10: BT stays perfect vs. MAC. JoePa stays perfect vs. Tastykake. Dan Connor learns perfect phone manners.

Purdue 43, Arizona 27: This a trendy upset pick, which makes sense, since Perdoo isn't really as good as everybody thinks. But Arizona can't score enough to keep up here.

Iowa 49, Northern Iowa 9: Look, I understand why Indiana plays I-AA teams. I get that. It makes some sense. But this? Iowa should be ashamed of itself and after last week's stinker probably is. Unless Iowa wins by 100 the Hawkeyes should fall in the polls.

Wisconsin 49, North Carolina 35: Attention, Captain Kirk of the U.S.S. (Usually Soft Schedule) Iowa: THIS is a good non-league game. Bucky actually played two of them, a high number in the BT as the Masonic influence spreads. Nothing's prettier than Kenan Stadium on a warm September afternoon, and the idyllic setting will see an entertaining shootout. UW's physical play makes the difference.

Notre Dame 30, Michigan State 28: Sparty will be driving for the winning score, Drew Stanton will have looked absolutely brilliant (say 26-for-38, 334 yards) and just before MSU cashes in Stanton will have a brain lock, do something awesomely stupid, and ND will be 2-0 vs. the Big Ten.

and ...

Arizona State 51, Northwestern 37: Look, the 'Cats don't stand a prayer of stopping these guys. ASU put up 560 yards on LSU, and the last time I looked the Bayou Bengals-- who I think will play for a national title -- had a touch more size, speed, experience, talent and athleticism on defense than the Wildcats do. ASU won't really stop NU either, but the Sun Devils will make bigger plays, commit fewer penalties and wind up on top. In Evanston, NU would have a shot at this one, though.

And with just one non-con game left for the BT (Perdoo-ND) my rating of league non-con skeds (3 points for toughie, 2 for tossup, 1 for turkey, 0 for I-AA bozos):

Illinois: One toughie, one tossup, one turkey: 6.
Indiana: One tossup, one turkey, one bozo: 3
Iowa: One toughie, one turkey, one bozo: 4
Michigan: One toughie, two turkeys: 5
Michigan State: One toughie, two turkeys: 5
Minnesota: One tossup, two turkeys: 4 (highest-ever score for a Masonic non-con sked!)
Northwestern: One toughie, one tossup, one turkey: 6.
Ohio State: One (real) toughie, one (being generous here but Miami-O is no turkey) tossup, one turkey: 6
Penn State: Three turkeys: 3.
Purdue: Two toughies, one turkey: 7
Wisconsin: Two toughies, one turkey: 7

Mason loses the Shame-on-You Trophy to JoePa! (sorry, Indiana's excused).

NIU: IT'S OVER

Randy Walker, who sometimes gives press conferences that read as unedited thoughts going directly to his tongue before going through a thought process (maybe Faulkner is his favorite author), nailed this one when he said he was glad the NIU game was over.

Playing NIU, as Walker noted, is a tough spot for the 'Cats. A win fits into the expected-ho-hum bin while a loss guarantees huge headlines in the Trib and Sun-Times mocking the Big Ten team that lost to the cutesy, cuddly MAC underdogs, a week (at least) of negative publicity and a hit to local recruiting.

On the other hand, it is nice to see 35,000 people in Dyche/Ryan for a non-con game (and I am sure the NU athletic department beancounters were delighted). And local rivals always bring extra sizzle to the plate, especially when one team has been openly contemptous/envious of the other recently, as in NIU coach Joe Novak's ungracious whining about NU's bowl bid in 2003 (hey, Joe, you can go to a bowl too anytime you can beat Toledo).

But on the whole this game terrified me and I am delighted to be past it with a win. Some thoughts, no blow-by-blow analysis here:

1) Randy Walker may have his weak points -- such as an almost fetishistic attachment to trick plays such as the fake field goal against NIU -- but the man knows everything there is to know about running backs. He can recruit them, he can coach them, he can make them better, and he knows how to use them. Walker didn't "recruit by yardstick" -- ie, be scared off by his height, or lack of it, at 5-foot-9 -- in Tyrell Sutton's case and the result is perhaps the most electrifying freshman in the nation. This kid -- if he stays healthy, of course -- may break every rushing record NU has. I love the way he dodges tacklers with a wiggle of hips, the way he sees the field and the way he gets into the end zone.

2) Boy, did NU miss Marquice Cole's speed and coverage skills in 2004. Cole, who missed the year with an injury, may well have come up with a big play or two against TCU, Arizona State, Hawaii and Wisconsin -- to my mind, the winnable losses of 2004 -- that would have sent NU bowling. He's far and away the best d-back on the team, which makes me nervous that he has to run back punts. Then again, 81-yard punt return TDs may make it worth the gamble.

3) Tim McGarigle's role model was Pat Fitzgerald. Saturday the whole country saw why McGarigle can be fairly compared to the greatest player at NU since Otto Graham. There must have looked like there were nine No. 41s on the field at times to NIU.

4) There has to be a better pass rush, and soon. NU must get some pressure on the quarterback. Blitz, stunt, send nine men, use a bulldozer, I careth not, but Phil Horvath could have had a five-course lunch, a glass of '63 Cockburn port and a Hoya y Monterey Churchill in the pocket at Saturday before any NU rusher would have gotten near the table. With Sam Keller, Michael Robinson, the suddenly-potent John Stocco, Brandon Kirsch and Drew Stanton coming up NU must find a pass rush.

5) I wasn't that upset by the big day NIU had running; they ran fairly well on Michigan, after all. Wolfe could play in the Big Ten easily; he's strong and hits holes hard. NU will need to tighten this up, but stopping the run won't matter that much if foes can pass successfully for every third-and-seven.

6) I give Novak credit for guts on the two-point try at the end, but I don't know how you take the equal chance to win overtime away from a team that had made such a terrific comeback. I'd have kicked.

7) God help the 'Cats if Basanez gets hurt.

As I said, a good thing NU is past this one. A loss would have been horrifying; the win may have been scary, but it counts. Four more for a bowl!

WHY COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS GREAT

This kind of intense hatred just doesn't come up at your average Lions-Chargers game...

http://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/?p=1013

I guess my meteor game would be Illinois at Notre Dame with the Cubs in attendance.

PHILMORE OUT ... HOW LONG?

According to the AP he's "taking time off from football for personal reasons," and won’t participate in team-related activities for an unspecified amount of time". He won't play at Arizona State ... and who knows how long beyond?

This is not good, obviously. He's a proven playmaker with experience and moxie and a major deep threat. Let's REALLY hope Kim Thompson can play now -- and we'll see a lot of Rasheed Ward and Eric Peterman too. Jonathan Fields, Shaun Herbert and Lane/Ward still should be effective, but Thompson would really help. I like what I have seen of Lane so far. But I really hope Philmore comes back -- and soon.

WHITE SOX MAGIC NUMBER ...

is 13. Hmm, unlucky. Can the Sox stagger home? Will Cleveland ever lose two in a row again? Can I bite my nails more agonizing over a: these guys, who have seen a 15-game lead in July shrink slowly but surely; b) the madly inconsistent Phillies or c) Northwestern's character-building games like the NIU horror?

If the Sox blow this one ... well, I'd like to say I'm done with them, had it, over, history, outta here. But no, I know I'll be back in black-and-white, following every game on CBS.Sportsline.com's game tracker -- which has been tempramental lately -- and hoping for the best while expecting the worst. These are the White Sox, after all.

13 ... you can do it, Sox! (right?)

UPDATE after disastrous 10-9 three-error come-from-five-runs-ahead catastrophe in Kansas City Wednesday: I have an awful feeling that the Sox will, indeed, blow this. When they hit, they don't pitch. When they pitch, they don't hit. When they do both they don't field. A five-game lead is nothing, given that Cleveland never loses. You read it here first: the Sox will blow this (and never have I hoped so much to be wrong).

LAST WEEK IN THE BIG 10

OK, here we go ... an impressionistic, idiosyncratric look at what went on. (Northwestern in separate post coming.)

Is it me, or was INDIANA's narrow escape from a Division I-AA team that had been battered by the hurricane and had barely practiced the least impressive performance of the weekend? I mean, at least Glen Mason chews up his cupcakes; the Hoosiers almost choked on theirs. What a year for Northwestern not to play these chumps. Everybody says Hoeppner is brilliant; he'll have to be, with a non-existent defense.

We are .... PENN STATE. We are ... bringing back our suspended quasi-criminals just in time for the Big 10 opener (against Northwestern, of course)! We are ... (sidebar here) owners of the most moronic chant in the land! Of COURSE you're Penn State, you dunces, all covered in blue-and-white and gobbling Peachy Paterno ice cream (which is actually pretty good). Who would dispute it? No one is denying you're Penn State, and after the last few years no one else wants to be you, either. So lose the blindingly self-evident chant and get a new one , like ... We are ... playing a terrible non-league schedule! Cincinnati fulfilled its usual role as Big Ten punching bag (8-36-2 all-time vs. BT, with three of the wins coming vs. -- you guessed it -- Indiana) to perfection. Sure, the Nits offense showed a pulse here with some big plays, but: a) it's Cincinnati; and b) I still think they will have trouble running the ball in the league. Maybe we'll learn more next week ... er, no, we won't (Directional Michigan coming to town)!

ILLINOIS managed to beat San Jose State this time, which does seem to prove that Ron II (Zook) will suffer fewer utterly embarassing defeats than Ron I (Turner, who lost to SJSU in 2002). If the Zooker can pull off an 3-0 start maybe da Bears should hire him. But before Illini fans start having grandiose dreams of a four-win season, remember: you trailed Rutgers by 20, and only the Scarlet Knights' born-to-lose playcalling (uh, guys, the clock STOPS when you pass and screw up) and Brian Huffman-in-Fort-Worth-like placekicking allowed you to escape with a win. I suspect California will not provide either escape route Saturday.

I generally dislike MICHIGAN STATE, instigator of several brawls with innocent, nice Northwestern boys over the years and the home of Grumpy Old George Perles, but I was delighted the Spartans dropped a Pearl Harbor on Hawaii, for at least three reasons: 1) Hawaii took my bowl game away last year, and we Purple People have long memories; 2) there's little question that Hawaii beat NU and MSU last year thanks to some outrageously inept (charitable word)/pure homer (less so)/cheating (really less charitable) officiating and 3) the rogue gallery of coaches Hawaii employs: June Jones, a bigot and braggart; Mouse Davis, he of the chuck-and-duck; and the unspeakable Jerry Glanville, the kind of hillbilly halfwit that makes you cringe to admit you're a sports fan. Thank God Sparty sent this rolling circus of clowns reeling back to Oahu with a thorough blasting. MSU's defense is still untested -- that will change this week -- and Drew Stanton still makes too many bad decisions, but when this offense clicks, look out. Expect one huge upset from these guys this year.

Somehow Glen Mason let a real team slip onto MINNESOTA's slate, i.e., Colorado State. OK, no, CSU's not Texas, but the Rams aren't hyphenated Louisiana either; Sonny Lubick is a good coach and CSU came within one play of beating Colorado in its opener. And Goofy Gopher chewed up CSU like a bunny at a lettuce convention. So we should be impressed? Not a chance. Mason's schtick for years is the same: some what appear to be decent early wins, even one or two in the league, then a tough loss and then a collapse. I've fallen for this trick before -- never again. When the Gophers win a big game after Oct. 10 in the league, I'll believe, but not before then. You can see this bunch's downfall coming: as wonderful as Maroney is -- and he's the best RB in the league, powerful and fast with that rare ability to change directions at full speed -- somebody will eventually slow him down and make Cupito beat them with his arm. I don't see that happening.

11 starters back on defense and PURDUE gives up 362 passing yards to Akron and its newbie QB? Maybe that defense wasn't good to begin with. This is not a top-15 team. Wait and see.

Not much can be said about WISCONSIN'S 65-0 win over an alleged D-I team so I won't say much. I do like Calhoun a lot. A better defense and Barry's last year could be a memorable one. We'll know more after Saturday on Tobacco Road (and any Bucky fans going should dine afterwards at Allen and Sons Barbeque, just north of Chapel Hill -- it's pigout heaven).

No single player means more to his team in the Big Ten than Drew Tate does to IOWA, and as soon as he went out vs. a pumped-up Iowa State team defending its home turf you knew Iowa was in trouble. I love Tate's moxie -- this kid is a winner -- but without him the Hawkeyes are average. They'll also need to buck up the defense in the Big Ten -- but don't make too much of this loss; Iowa State is pretty good. I fully expect Iowa to due just fine -- anybody remember last year when Arizona State mauled the Hawkeyes? It had no lasting impact. Neither will this -- unless the concussion has long-term impact on Tate.

OHIO STATE lost to what looks to be the second-best team in the country, and that's no shame. Tressel fiddled with the QBs too much -- yo, Jim, Smith is better -- and it's strange to see an OSU team that can't punch it in the end zone (where are you now, John Brockington?) and how does Ginn get just three touches, anyway? -- but this is the team to beat in the league. What IS a shame was disgraceful OSU fan behavior after the game: abusive, violent and classless. This is becoming something of a trend -- many Northwestern fans say the Horseshoe is a nasty place to cheer for the other team -- and OSU may have a problem on its hands.

Lloyd Carr once mused that playing Notre Dame really doesn't do MICHIGAN any good, and he was once again proven right Saturday. ND did nothing in the second half and its defense gave Big Blue every chance and then some to score, but Carr suddenly watched Chad Henne regress before his eyes, watched Steve Breaston not turn into Braylon Edwards and discovered his running back depth isn't as quality as he thought. Tough to find all that out against Notre Dame and Charlie Weis. UM's defense has real issues -- BT foes may well be able to run all day against it -- and if Henne doesn't get his head screwed on straight again UM may not be able to outscore teams such as Michigan State in shootouts. Assuming Drew Tate is healthy, the Wolverines are No. 3 of the "Big 3" that lost Saturday.

LET'S GO CATS!

I have major handicaps as a college football blogger. I can't see many games. I work at night and Saturday afternoons and don't have cable (yes, I know, Stone Age and all that). I watch what I can at work -- as a sportswriter, this can be done, in small doses -- catch the highlight shows and read everything I can, on Northwestern, the Big 10, Eastern football, and the rest of the nation, in that order. So if you're the kind of person who discounts any comment by somebody who didn't see every play of every game, then I'm not your guy to turn to for analysis. On the other hand, I have been following football avocationally since 1969 and vocationally since 1986, and that experience can, occasionally, pay off in some insight and knowledge. Or so I'm told.

I do listen to Northwestern broadcasts via the Net. I watch a game when I can, and I get tapes from family and friends.

When it comes to the Wildcats, I am a fan. I get angry, I get frustrated, I get disappointed --MUST NU lead the Big Ten in penalties every year? -- but I am a fan. I make no apologies for that. I try and be objective looking at Northwestern's plusses and minuses, and I will not hesitate to find fault. But I'm a fan who always hopes for the best even when I may not see it coming -- such as Nov. 12 in Columbus.

To give some idea of where I am coming from, a few basics:

I am generally positive towards Randy Walker. I am not completely sold on Walker, but I see more good than bad. I like the commitment to run the ball, his emphasis on conditioning and the usually-productive offensee. I dislike his inattention to special teams, his inability to come up with a pass defense and (as noted above) his teams' penchant for penalties. NU could do better; NU could do a lot worse.

I will always thank Gary Barnett for taking the Purple (and me) to Pasadena, but he's been a pretty low-rent coach on the moral scale of things at Colorado.

A 95 percent graduation rate is more reason to be proud than a 10-1 football record, but I don't see why NU can't have both.

I have been an NU fan since 1984. In that stretch, my favorite Wildcats have been John Duvic, Richard Buchanan, Bob Christian, Lee Gissandaner (esp. that catch at Illinois in 1992!), Zak Kustok, Noah Herron, Dwayne Missouri, Jason Wright, Ira Adler, Zach Strief, Tim McGarigle, Tim Long, Sam Simmons, Harold Blackmon, Ed Sutter, Billy Silva, and, of course, the entire Rose Bowl team, especially Pat Fitzgerald, Eric Collier, Steve Schnur and Rob Johnson.

In the Big 10, I most want NU to defeat ILLINOIS above all -- 1-10 seasons are tolerable if the "1" is Illinois. My passion for defeats of the Illini is boundless; the 61-23 scoring festival in 2000 left me in Nirvana. The others vary in intensity, but right now my rivalry list would look like (in descending order): Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Penn State, Indiana.

I wish Ryan Field was still Dyche Stadium.

I like Dave Eanet as a radio guy but Ted Albrecht, while well-meaning, is annoying.

My ideal non-conference slate, if 4 games long, is: Notre Dame, Army, Ball State, Duke. Or North Carolina, SMU, Toledo and Vanderbilt. Or Stanford, Rutgers, Kent State and Navy.

Nothing means more than winning the Big Ten. The three Big Ten titles since 1995 are to treasure.

So that's sort of where I am coming from. More posts soon -- tell your friends!

Welcome!

This is a forum to ponder and discuss my curious selection of interests and obsessions, such as fine wine; the White Sox; the state of the urban experiment; gin, whisky, and their friends; literature and poetry; my 37-year love affair with the Miami Dolphins; cats; the blues, musical and otherwise; music from Bach to Bruckner to Babbitt; the Phillies; journalism and its travails; jazz; libertarian politics, and, not least, Northwestern University athletics, especially football, hence the name.

As for me, I'm a 42-year-old cynic addicted to port, college football, and my CD collection. I live with my dreams, my hopes, about 2,000 CDs and 1,000 books, and my cat, Fred, in Center City Philadelphia.

Everybody's welcome; jump right in. Comments are encouraged, and fire away. I will blast people from time to time and I expect to be fired on in return. But I hope most comments are useful, pertinent, and civil, and, I hope, entertaining.b